Goldswell Investment Limited
Goldswell Asset Management Limited
Hong Kong value investing

At 30 April 2012 the HKEx mainboard P/E was 10 and Goldswell's Value Timing fund was fully invested in the market

 

    


  www.goldswell.com.hk

Home

  Goldswell's funds

Hong Kong small
     cap value fund

Hong Kong large
     cap value fund

Hong Kong utilities
     value fund

Hong Kong Mainland
     China value fund

Hong Kong Value
     Timing fund

Combination of
      funds  

 Hong Kong market

Comparison of  
     HK-listed Mainland
     China stocks and other
     HK-listed stocks

Comparison of
     Large and Small
     company stocks

Comparison of Hang 
     Seng Composite
     Industry indexes

  Other

Comparison of Hong
     Kong and China stock
     market indexes

Comparison of a
     selection of Hong
     Kong and international
     stock market indexes

Who is Goldswell?

 

 

Some characteristics of stocks and trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as at 30 April 2012 per hkex.com.hk, hsi.com.hk and Goldswell's calculations are:

  • There were 1,516 stocks with a total market capitalisation of $HK20,231 billion
  • Market turnover for April 2012 was $HK864 billion
  • At this rate, 51% of the Hong Kong market capitalisation turns over each year. Actually as almost all Hong Kong listed companies have a major controlling shareholder who doesn't trade their shares, the available market capitalisation turns over much faster than the 51% pa
  • Average P/E was 10 for the Main Board and 19 for the GEM Board
  • 62% of the Hong Kong market capitalisation of the top-48 stock Hang Seng Index (HSI) can be classified as Mainland China companies (50% or more of their sales are in Mainland China)
  • 41% of the Hong Kong market capitalisation of the HSI is made up of financial stocks

Looking at the various Hang Seng total return indexes for the 12 months to 30 April 2012:

  • The HSI is down 8%
  • The HSML100 Mainland index is down 10% compared to the HSHK35 Hong Kong index down 8%
  • The HSLI Large Company index is down 8% compared to the HSSI Small Company index down 25%
  • The HSCI Industry indexes ranged from up 16% for Telecoms to down 37% for Materials

Within this environment Goldswell manages the following private investment funds:

  • Hong Kong Small Cap fund benchmarked against the HSSI Small Cap total return index
  • Hong Kong Large Cap fund benchmarked against the HSCI Composite total return index
  • Hong Kong Utilities fund benchmarked against the HSCI Utilities total return subindex
  • Hong Kong Mainland China fund benchmarked against the HSML100 Mainland total return index
  • Hong Kong Value Timing fund benchmarked against the HSI total return index

A combination of these funds that suits Goldswell is 30% small caps, 28% large caps, 8% utilities, 28% Mainland China and 6% value timing... with 6-monthly rebalancing at 30 June and 31 December.

Goldswell's funds are fully invested in Hong Kong listed stocks except for minor cash balances. The funds are similar to their benchmark indexes but weighted towards industries and stocks with better value fundamentals. Goldswell charges these funds a 0.2% management fee per month except for the Market Timing fund which is charged 0.02% per month.

Following is a summary of these funds' performances and characteristics. Also to better understand how these funds have performed compared to some other Hong Kong investment possibilities, details are given for the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng Total Return Index, investing in gold via the Hong Kong listed SPDR Gold Trust, the HSBC $HK1m 1-year fixed bank deposit rate and the Hong Kong composite CPI inflation rate.

Goldswell's funds have all started on different dates. For the "Combination of funds" performance below we have used the funds' benchmark returns for the periods before the funds started.

Table 1 - Goldswell's Investment Summary as at 30 April 2012

Source of data - As calculated by Goldswell

 

HK Small Cap fund

HK Large Cap fund

HK Utilities fund

HK Mainland China fund

HK Market Timing fund

Combination of funds

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Hang Seng Total Return Index (HSITRI)

HK Listed SPDR Gold Trust

HSBC $HK1m 1-yr bank deposit

HK Composite CPI inflation rate

                       

Fund weighting for Goldswell's combination of funds:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current weighting

30.0%

28.5%

7.6%

27.6%

6.3%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

After 30-Jun and 31-Dec rebalancing

30%

28%

8%

28%

6%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 2012:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment or index return

-1%

3%

-1%

0%

3%

1%

3%

3%

0%

0%

0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12 months to 30 April 2012:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment or index return

-24%

-10%

-7%

-18%

-8%

-16%

-11%

-8%

8%

0%

5%

Equivalent monthly compounding return

-2%

-1%

-1%

-2%

-1%

-1%

-1%

-1%

1%

0%

0%

Best month

16%

13%

7%

15%

13%

14%

13%

13%

13%

0%

2%

Worst month

-20%

-16%

-8%

-16%

-14%

-16%

-14%

-14%

-11%

0%

-1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Various dates to 30 April 2012 - For the newer funds, the period before the fund started uses the fund's benchmark index performance

Since HK Market Timing fund started on 1 Sep 10 (20 months)

-10%

2%

-2%

-9%

7%

-4%

3%

7%

33%

0%

11%

Since HK Mainland China fund started on 1 Nov 09 (30 months)

8%

6%

1%

-7%

4%

3%

-3%

4%

58%

1%

11%

Since HK Utilities fund started on1 Mar 08 (50 months)

-22%

14%

-8%

 -15%

-1%

-7%

-13%

-1%

68%

3%

13%

Since HK Large Cap fund started on 1 Apr 07 (61 months)

3%

40%

17%

 24%

 24%

26%

7%

24%

146%

6%

18%

Since HK Small Cap fund started on 1 Oct 04 (91 months)

80%

 149%

 70%

 184%

 104%

137%

61%

104%

293%

14%

24%

Since inception equivalent annual compounding % better/worse than the fund's benchmark index

2.1%

2.8%

-4.9%

-3.5%

0.0%

2.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Since inception equivalent annual compounding % better/worse than the fund's benchmark index excluding management fee

4.6%

5.3%

-2.6%

-1.1%

0.2%

4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment Characteristics:

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of stocks invested in

36

45

13

47

1

90

48

 

 

 

 

No of HSI stocks invested in

0

16

4

11

 

17

48

 

 

 

 

Weighting of largest stock

8.1%

6.1%

14.1%

4.8%

 

2.2%

14.4%

 

 

 

 

Weighted ave stock market cap - HKDm's

6,024

281,415

183,923

232,277

51,722

252,911

1,044,684

 

 

 

 

Weighted ave stock market cap on HKEx - HKDm's

5,129

146,271

178,698

106,744

51,722

149,771

732,324

 

 

 

 

P/NTA

0.63

1.08

1.31

1.14

1.00

0.96

1.53

 

 

 

 

P/E

4

7

11

7

 

6

10

 

 

 

 

P/CFO

12

11

7

8

 

9

6

 

 

 

 

Dividend yield

4.1%

3.5%

3.3%

3.6%

3.0%

3.7%

3.4%

 

 

 

 

1-yr sales growth

30%

31%

22%

29%

 

29%

25%

 

 

 

 

1-yr profit growth

22%

10%

3%

17%

 

15%

7%

 

 

 

 

Profit margin (Profit/Sales)

19%

16%

14%

11%

 

15%

15%

 

 

 

 

Asset turnover (Sales/Assets)

48%

32%

29%

42%

 

37%

16%

 

 

 

 

Gearing (Assets/SHF)

196%

314%

280%

341%

 

294%

640%

 

 

 

 

Return on equity (Profit/SHF)

18%

16%

12%

16%

 

16%

15%

 

 

 

 

1-yr sustainable growth rate (ROExRR)

15%

12%

7%

12%

 

13%

10%

 

 

  

 

Implied return (D1/P0+G) ie the annual return equivalent to buying a stream of dividends, starting with the current yield and growing at the 1-yr sustainable growth rate

20%

16%

11%

15%

 

17%

14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geographical Sales:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% invested in companies with >50% sales in China

64%

60%

84%

100%

62%

74%

62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industry Allocations:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy

9%

17%

 

25%

11%

15%

11%

 

 

 

 

Materials

7%

4%

 

7%

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

Industrial goods

12%

6%

 

8%

 

7%

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer goods

16%

12%

 

10%

5%

11%

5%

 

 

 

 

Services

15%

8%

 

14%

3%

10%

3%

 

 

 

 

Telecommunications

 

2%

8%

2%

17%

3%

17%

 

 

 

 

Utilities

9%

10%

92%

5%

4%

16%

4%

 

 

 

 

Financials

 

12%

 

9%

41%

10%

41%

 

 

 

 

Property and construction

21%

17%

 

9%

9%

14%

9%

 

 

 

 

Information technology

11%

4%

 

4%

4%

5%

4%

 

 

 

 

Conglomerates

 

8%

 

6%

6%

5%

6%

 

 

 

 

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment returns are not fixed or reliable. Goldswell's website pages show how variable our returns and our benchmark returns have been. After years of doing monthly updates of investment statistics, it is clear to Goldswell that the investment return changes filter through to change all investment statistics (mean, volatility, value at risk, sharpe ratio, information ratio, correlation etc). None of them are fixed and sometimes the changes are dramatic.

Not only do investment returns change but generally a distribution of investment returns does not conform to the Gaussian normal probability distribution with much confidence. This can be confirmed using the Jarque-Bera test on a series of investment returns. It is Goldswell's experience that generally an investment return distribution will fail this test at a significant confidence level. Generally a distribution of investment returns has higher kurtosis than the normal distribution i.e. generally an investment return distribution has a higher peak and fatter tails than expected with a normal distribution.

This means applying normal distribution mathematics to calculate a forecast range for future investment returns at a particular confidence level (e.g. next year’s investment return at a 95% confidence level) is flawed and we should lack confidence in the answer. Especially we should be careful about the fat tail at the negative extreme where the normal distribution will understate the risk. Suffering a large investment loss is more likely than the normal distribution would tell us. The same lack of confidence goes for all investment statistics which build on from the normal distribution mean and variance (i.e. value at risk, sharpe ratio, information ratio, correlation etc). If the normal distribution doesn't apply, making calculations as though it does and confidently stating expectations is a bit silly.

As if to hammer home the point, it seems there are many instances of professional investors and financial institutions that have got into trouble from having too much confidence in their investment mathematics.

Apparently the fractal distribution is a much better fit for investment returns but working out the parameters for this distribution is problematic. When somebody figures out some better mathematics to deal with investment returns or a user-friendly way to deal with the fractal distribution we will use it.

Meanwhile... a portfolio or investment style's recent performance reflects how it was suited to recent conditions. These conditions may or may not continue, or may have changed already. Periods of out- performance are often followed by periods of under-performance.

Except for Goldswell's Market Timing fund, Goldswell's funds consist of a spread of investments of a particular style. Industry allocations and individual investments are selected to give the funds better overall "value" investment fundamentals than their benchmark indexes. Also we overweight towards smaller companies. Our choices will be right or wrong to varying degrees. On a long term portfolio-wide basis, we believe we have a rationale to outperform our benchmarks. But there are no guarantees. Certainly, on a month by month basis, we may outperform our benchmarks or not, and often the returns will be negative.

Goldswell's calculations won't exactly match those of the various information services as we use slightly different methodology, interim results updates and sometimes make estimates. However we are consistent with our methods across all our funds and index calculations, making our calculations directly comparable with each other. Be careful with information on this website. You may disagree with our calculation methodology and sometimes we make mistakes.

 

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